Alarming News

October 29, 2008

Thoughts on the election while I procrastinate on doing 8 other things

I agree with Peter Feld and Dick Morris (both of whom, sidenote trivia, taught me in grad school!) that the “undecideds” will break for McCain. No, it’s not that they are racists, just that this race has become the election of Obama or not-Obama and my sense is undecideds usually go for the “anti” vote.

I’m not sure there are enough of them at this point to make a difference nationally, but they may on a state-by-state basis. Real Clear Politics has Obama up by 4 in Florida and 6 in Ohio. Those numbers might be the margin of undecided voters which, obviously, is McCain’s best case scenario. Of course, if he loses Virginia and Colorado, as it appears he will, none of this matters anyway.

I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again: forget about Pennsylvania. Making Obama spend money there wasn’t the worst idea ever but in these last few days before we choose our next president, McCain’s campaign should surrender the fantasy, completely, that some disgruntled white boys in Pennsylvania are going to lead some kind of rebellion and take down Obama. They’re not.

Is it over? Mostly. But there’s a reason we still have an election day, despite all the polls. If you care about who will win, get out and vote and bring others with you. The only people who matter are the ones voting. The people answering the phone and giving their opinion to a pollster just don’t.

Posted by Karol at 01:52 PM |
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Posted by: Michael Scott at October 29, 2008 at 2:25 pm

OMG you believe what you read in the newspapers.

Posted by: Jake at October 29, 2008 at 2:40 pm

I don’t, Jake, and I think most of the polls are off because Obama fans are jumping out of their seat excited to talk to pollsters while McCain doesn’t have fans, just voters. So, we’ll see. But I don’t want to get anyone’s hopes up, it’s not looking to good for Republicans at the moment.

Posted by: Karol at October 29, 2008 at 2:43 pm

Have you seen this McCain internal polling memo? They know a fair amount about the people who are responding “Undecided” or “Refused,” and there’s good reason to believe they’ll break for McCain.
Murtha’s in danger. That’s an indication that McCain has a shot in Pa.

Posted by: Michael Bates at October 29, 2008 at 4:41 pm

On any given Tuesday in the NFL… no, wait, that’s not it…

Posted by: Jim Lesczynski at October 29, 2008 at 5:48 pm

there’s something ironic about obama preaching about spreading the wealth, etc…at the same time he’s spending more money then anyone in history…oh, and lied about public financing.
this is the first election cycle I’ve truly paid alot of attention to…this election has been a disgrace….maybe they’re all like that.

Posted by: Larry at October 29, 2008 at 6:48 pm

You have some inside scoop on PA? The only thing that keeps PA in the D column is the ballot box stuffing in Philly, and the union thugs. It’s a pretty conservative state with lots of old people who won’t think much of Mr. Hopey-Change.

Posted by: Casca at October 29, 2008 at 8:24 pm

Next Tuesday may come down to two states. If McCain wins Pennsylvania then he wins Ohio easily and rest of the whole thing. If Obama wins Ohio then he wins the Electoral College easily.

Posted by: largebill at October 29, 2008 at 8:49 pm

The “undecideds” might vote for McCain, but McCain has to have conservatives vote for him as well. I’m not convinced that will happen enough to overcome Obama’s momentum. It’ll be close, but I don’t see McCain winning.

Posted by: Pokerwolf at October 30, 2008 at 7:34 am
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