September 28, 2004
One of my favorite moments in the film ‘Michael Moore Hates America’ was clips of Michael Moore supporting different losing candidates over the years like Jerry Brown, Ralph Nader and Wesley Clark. He always does it with such gusto, which makes it all the more amusing when they go down in loser history. Recently, Moore released one of his ‘open letters’ telling Democrats to not get dispirited and to definitely not believe the polls. I’m not a big fan of polls either, but Moore’s points on why the polls are wrong are silly. Moore writes:
The polls are wrong. They are all over the map like diarrhea. On Friday, one poll had Bush 13 points ahead — and another poll had them both tied. There are three reasons why the polls are b.s.: One, they are polling “likely voters.” “Likely” means those who have consistently voted in the past few elections. So that cuts out young people who are voting for the first time and a ton of non-voters who are definitely going to vote in THIS election. Second, they are not polling people who use their cell phone as their primary phone. Again, that means they are not talking to young people. Finally, most of the polls are weighted with too many Republicans, as pollster John Zogby revealed last week. You are being snookered if you believe any of these polls.
First of all, the best polls do poll likely voters. The inaccurate ones poll registered voters and are proven wrong when only likely voters show up on election day. Likely voters are -shock- most likely to actually vote.
But, forget that. Let’s go to Moore’s other point, that young people were going to come out en masse for Kerry. The numbers: Washington Post is reporting that registered voters aged 18-30 are choosing Bush over Kerry, 53-41%. Moore can’t claim that they’re just polling likely voters, and his cell phone idea would only account for a couple of percentage points. Also, as James Taranto points out, ‘Yet another interesting finding of both the Post/ABC and Gallup polls: President Bush does better among registered voters than among the smaller group of likely voters. Gallup has Bush up by 8% among likely voters (52% to 44%) and 13% among registered voters (54% to 41%). Post/ABC has Bush up by 6% among likely voters (51% to 45%) and 7% among registered voters (51% to 44%).’
I’m not saying it’s over, still a month left to go and anything can happen, just that I’m looking forward to Michael Moore’s official endorsement of John Kerry to make the loss a certainty. He hasn’t been right about anything yet.