Alarming News

March 29, 2004

President Kerry?

Maybe I Think Too Much has an excellent contest that allows you to guess which states will be won by each candidate. At the moment, I have Kerry winning with 280 electoral votes spread across 24 states and George W. Bush receiving 258 electoral votes spread across 27 states. I think it’s way too early to tell what will happen, and I’m convinced that the more people will know about Kerry the less they will like him, but that’s what the numbers look like to me right now. I gave Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, three states that went for Bush in 2000, to Kerry. I also let him keep New Mexico, a state that Bush lost by about 300 votes. Everything else from 2000 stayed the same. We’ll see what happens, there is still a lot of time for these predictions to be altered. What do your predictions say?

Posted by Karol at 12:50 PM |
Comments

Whatev. Bush is a lock.

Posted by: Dawn Summers at March 29, 2004 at 1:34 pm

I don’t think we can be friends any more . . . :(

Posted by: Kevin Patrick at March 29, 2004 at 2:38 pm

:-)
Kevin, again, a lot can and will happen between now and November. Of course I hope its a Bush landslide but who knows. My numbers are if the election is held tomorrow, which, thankfully, it won’t be.

Posted by: Karol at March 29, 2004 at 3:01 pm

Obviously I am only kidding, but I am not sure I could objectively participate in an exercise that would imagine Kerry as President. I applaud your reasonableness in assessing the various state races. But as in my posts over the weekend at http://www.blogsforbush.com show, the Bush campaign has hit the ground running in Missouri and New Mexico so I would argue for some electoral vote swaps in both of those cases :)
Either way, nice job by you.

Posted by: Kevin Patrick at March 29, 2004 at 3:38 pm

yes, excellent “bush landslide” that’s the kinda talk I like to hear! Almost as sweet as “presumptive nominee john kerry” muhahahahaha

Posted by: Dawn Summers at March 29, 2004 at 4:24 pm

Apparently I think Bush will win 290-248. That was wicked cool.

Posted by: Gib at March 29, 2004 at 4:27 pm

A few thoughts.
First, the electoral college only matters at all in a very close election, say with a margin of 3% or less. And with the single exception of 2000, even in the close or fairly close elections in the last 100 years, the electoral college has reflected the popular vote (see 1916, 1948, 1960, 1968, 1976).
In elections that aren’t that close, the winner’s margin is magnified. For example, take the 1988 election, where Bush I won by 7.8%, but the electoral college vote was 426-111. Conversely, in 1992, Clinton won the popular vote by 5.6% but the electoral vote by 370-168.
The reason for this is that most states tend to be a few points more Republican or more Democratic than the national average, but will normally go to the other party once that margin has been exceeded. (The typical exception is when a local issue or condition shifts the mood of the state’s electorate, or when a sharp demographic shift in a state makes past election results unreliable.) For example, Ohio is perhaps 4% more Republican than the average state, but went to Clinton in ‘92 and ‘96 when his national margins exceeded that number. Ohio reverted to its GOP form in 2000 when it was taken by Bush II in the dead-heat election. Pennsylvania is the mirror image, carried by Bush I in 1988, but by Gore in 2000.
However, since nobody who follows elections can avoid speculating on the electoral college….
Unless 2004 turns into a blowout, which doesn’t seem very likely at this point, most states will probably vote the same as they did in 2000.
For the Democrats, their best shots at pickup states, in order of probability, are likely Ohio, which has higher than average unemployment; Missouri, very closely contested in 2000 (especially if Dick Gephardt is the VP candidate); West Virgina, usually Democratic until 2000 and possibly upset about steel tariffs; and New Hampshire, won narrowly by Bush in a Democratic region. Obviously, they are going to contest Florida hard and are doing well there in opinion polls, but this is a state that usually trends Republican and which elected Jeb Bush as governor by 13% in 2002.
Best Republican shot is probably Pennsylvania, which seems very close in recent polls, Minnesota, which has been trending Republican in recent years, Wisconsin, very close in 2002 and New Mexico. It should be noted that Republican-carried states gained 7 electoral votes by the last census, so that if the state votes were all the same as in 2000, Bush would win 278-260.
A good URL for updated state poll results is http://www.realclearpolitics/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html

Posted by: bobm at March 29, 2004 at 7:45 pm

I’m actually predicting Bush in a landslide, as Kerry continues to step on his on feet and stab himself in the back with his record on every opportunity.
I’m a union member (not by choice), and my union has endorsed Kerry. As a direct result, they are losing members every day. The place where I work used to be 100% union. The number now is closer to 60%, and we’re calling for a recall election to decertify our union as our representative. I’m leading the charge!
Bill and Hillary, still in firm control of the Democrat party, while publicly supporting Kerry, will work behind the scenes to insure that he isn’t elected. Hillary doesn’t want to run against a sitting president, which is why she isn’t on the ballot this year.

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